Hot take: This election is really interesting
People may not like the candidates, but the campaign is compelling. And it’s now.
My friend, colleague and fellow Hoosier Asma Khalid was just on the radio with a compelling story: her discussion with eleven Democrats in the swing state of Georgia. They were “grassroots organizers,” mostly younger and progressive, who had actively worked for Joe Biden’s election in 2020. When Asma asked how many were committed to Biden today, two of eleven raised their hands.
The war in Gaza was a big reason; many feel Biden’s support for Israel is a moral stain because Israel’s response to an attack by Hamas has killed so many civilians. “In 2020,” Democrat Marisa Pyle says, “I ran statewide turnout campaigns. I worked full time to get Joe Biden elected. And I don’t know how I would vote if the election was held today because I am so scared of a Donald Trump presidency but I also want to be able to live with myself.”
The activists left Asma with the impression that this issue combines with others to fuel their general disappointment in an older president they consider disconnected.
This is a profound story of democracy. If you are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, Trump is no better than Biden from your point of view, and plausibly worse. Yet some say rejecting Biden is so important to them that they may help to elect a man who they see as worse on their most important issue and also worse on every other issue.
Some Democrats see the election differently. An older pastor in Asma’s room of activists spoke of following Martin Luther King in 1959 to fight for voting rights. He said people should not throw away their votes, and the path to reform is long. Biden’s campaign believes, or hopes, that Democrats will make that calculation. And when Asma asked the eleven activists how many feel “it’s possible” that Biden could “earn your vote,” about all of them said yes.
But time is short. Election Day, November 5, is almost six months away—but early voting begins sooner. People mail in ballots or show up at polling places in October, or September, or in some cases even August. (I haven’t seen the schedule for every state, but Oregon begins mailing ballots to voters August 7.) The decisive part of the campaign is not this fall. It’s this summer. It’s now.
Republicans face their own difficult choices as voting nears. In primaries, meaningful numbers of people continue voting for Nikki Haley instead of Trump, even though she suspended her campaign. At the same time, Republican politicians who previously said Trump is unfit to serve are proclaiming their fealty and angling for the vice presidency. William Barr, Trump’s onetime attorney general who has testified to Trump’s failings, went on television to say he’ll vote for Trump because progressives are just worse.
Polls are very close—the 538 average shows both candidates in the low 40’s, with Trump about one point ahead. Some voters are undecided and about ten percent have taken an interest in Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., a candidate who recently made news by saying a worm ate part of his brain. I’ve noticed a lot of RFK bumper stickers and activists in my travels. We’ll see how the worm turns.
How should Americans face an election where many hate their choices? My book Differ We Must illustrates politics as Abraham Lincoln practiced it in the 1800’s. He didn’t see politics as a morality play in which people showed their personal purity or virtue. He saw it as a clash of interests, among equal citizens who had a wide variety of views. The winning candidate was the one who was able to build the broadest coalition with the largest number of people, including those whose views he considered awful.
The winning candidate in 2024 is also likely to be the one who builds the broadest coalition with people who can barely stand each other.
And here is my hot take about that election. It’s really interesting. It’s worth following. It’s not dull or depressing at all. Go ahead, snark at me in the comments. But hear me out first.
It’s true that our politics have not produced the new, young, flashy candidate that our culture would prefer. Trump is one of the oldest of the Baby Boomers, who’s been chasing fame for half a century. His ongoing criminal trial in New York City reflects on his years and years and years of shady business dealings and affairs, as well as an election that is itself now eight years past.
Biden is a little older than the Boomers, and was an exciting young politico fifty years ago. RFK Jr. is an older Boomer whose fame depends on a century-old political brand established by his family’s earlier generations.
But wow, the issues are compelling. I’ve been reporting an NPR series on immigration. Facing a wave of asylum seekers, Biden is struggling to enforce outdated laws and calling for some reform. Trump is calling for mass deportations, rounding up millions of people into camps. That’s a big difference!
And the campaigns seem ready to innovate. In the past week, Trump and Biden abruptly agreed to a pair of debates, with the first coming June 27. The very early date takes into account the reality that our election is now. Biden challenged Trump on social media, with a poke in the ribs (“I hear you’re free on Wednesdays,” when his criminal trial takes a break) and Trump responded in kind. This is interesting.
More important, the campaign is not about them. It’s about us. It’s our opportunity to see how we can work the levers of democracy in our own best interests, and the interests of our country. It’s our chance to see how we can preserve the small-r republican institutions through which we mediate our differences. If we are to have a democracy at all, we are the only ones who can decide. So let’s do this.
Thanks for reading Differ We Must, my companion to the book of the same name. While it’s strictly a story of the 1800’s, its modern-day relevance is on every page. You will decide if I tell the story well; but the story itself is an inspiring break from our stressful present—and you may return with a new perspective on the present.
To me, the thing is simple.
Politics is as corrupt and filled with dark, dirty money as any other institution, perhaps more so, but America will end up with either President Trump or President Biden in November, the lesser players notwithstanding. Voters might absolutely detest the others in their coalition, but one of the two very different men will prevail.
Choose wisely, American voters, even if you must hold your nose whilst doing so.
I think it is not interesting, I think it is frightful. I continue to fail to understand how people can say that they wouldn't vote for Biden, while they also completely understand THAT Trump is not just a horrible person but a tremendously horrible candidate. The mind boggles. And while the Israel/Palestinian situation is truly horrific, how much of it, like the border, or student loans, or... air safety (to cite 3 things I've seen people mention in polls that they think Biden cms control) do the Dems really have the ability to affect with a divided congress? I think, unfortunately, the Democratic messaging has been absolutely terrible about not just all of the successes of the Biden Admin, but also of all of the disastrous parts of Trump's "reign." They've got 6 months (or less, as you pointed out, Steve) to blanket social media, billboards, TV, Radio, EVERYWHERE with that two-pronged message. Failure to do that will get Trump back in the White House, and another 4 years (at least) of horrible, terrible, no good, very bad things.