Harris, Trump and the keystone presidents

An attempt to keep our fevered moment in perspective.

On Monday morning, stock markets fell. News stories used the word “panic” and said trading sites were freezing up. Analysts considered how this new reality would affect everything from the broader economy to the presidential campaign.

On Friday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial average closed up for the week. The broader stock market also had recovered.

I don’t conclude from this that nothing happened. Tech stocks have retreated after being overhyped and the Fed is trying to manage a soft landing for inflation. Markets are risky and may drop again; it’s been a rough summer. I’m no expert. But I do claim some expertise in the art of waiting to see how things turn out. In this case, just four days changed our perspective, to the point where it’s hard to recall the panic on Monday.

In my experience, even very smart people make the mistake of assuming that the latest development is a trend, which they mentally extend into the future. Last spring, it was obvious to smart business leaders that Joe Biden was going to lose the presidential election, and some began positioning themselves for Donald Trump’s return to office. Now that everything is different, it would be tempting to assume that President Harris will be taking the oath in January—except that there is time for the campaign to be transformed several more times in the months that remain.

It helps a little to take the long view of events. It compels us to add more data to our thinking, which can strengthen our conclusions (or show us how uncertain they are). And that is how I have tried to think about our political moment.

In a moment I will try to apply the long view to the presidential campaign—updating a framework I suggested four years ago. First, I’d like to encourage you to become a paid subscriber to this newsletter. Many of you have, and thank you! Your contribution makes the work possible. And as I shift to more paywalled posts, I want them to be affordable. Starting now, and for the next few days, I’ve cut the price to see if that is helpful.